NFL Market Movers: Lawrence Climbs While Herbert Plummets

Despite rough starts in back-to-back weeks, Trevor Lawrence and some of his key mid-tier cards have been some of the biggest winners in the NFL market over the last month. The same can’t be said for Justin Herbert, though, as he’s seen several rookies take big dives despite an injury to his rib cartilage proving to be less impactful than previously expected.

Read about Lawrence, Herbert, and the rest of the NFL market’s biggest risers and decliners, according to Market Movers.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum of 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Mosaic NFL Debut Green PSA 10 📈 199%

2. Patrick Mahomes 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 149%

3. Jalen Hurts 2020 Donruss Press Proof Yellow PSA 10 📈 136%

4. Jalen Hurts 2020 Prizm Draft Picks Silver PSA 10 📈 122%

5. Jalen Hurts 2020 Illusions Base PSA 10 📈 104%

SECOND-YEAR OPTIONS: Why is a second-year Patrick Mahomes card popping up among the most popular sales recently? Well, unfortunately for many collectors, his true Optic rookie is just too far out of reach, making his 2018 second-year Optic the next-best option for some.

If we dive into the price points, we can see that his 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 is currently averaging about $793 per sale while his second-year 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 is down at just $46. It’s hard to recommend this route for investing purposes, but there’s no harm in collectors scooping these up to ensure their collection includes their favorite QB.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Joe Burrow 2020 Chronicles Base PSA 10 📉 71%

2. Justin Fields 2021 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 70%

3. Baker Mayfield 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 66%

4. Trey Lance 2021 Mosaic Reactive Orange PSA 10 📉 65%

5. Justin Fields 2021 Mosaic Base PSA 10 📉 63%

THE END OF BAKER? The Baker Mayfield experiment in Carolina may be coming to a close sooner rather than later, and at this point it’s hard to see where the former No. 1 overall pick goes from here. The Panthers are currently 1-4, they just fired head coach Matt Rhule, and Mayfield is also expected to miss time with a high-ankle sprain.

Even before the injury Mayfield has looked bad — he’s passed for just 962 yards and four TDs in five games — and it’s clear the Panthers will need to move on soon. Overall, Mayfield’s PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are down 34% collectively over the last 30 days, and his 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 has been the biggest decliner with a 66% drop. That Prizm is now down to just $33.

DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📈 $663

2. Jalen Hurts 202 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 $418

3. Josh Allen 2018 Select Premier Level Silver PSA 10 📈 $185

4. Jalen Hurts 2020 Optic Holo PSA 10 📈 $149

5. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 $137

LAWRENCE CLIMBS: Hurts and Allen are the usual suspects in this space, but Trevor Lawrence making this big of a jump recently is somewhat surprising. Along with his 2021 Optic Downtown, Lawrence’s 2021 Prizm Silver PSA is also up big over the last month, showing collectors remain interested in some of his higher-priced mid-tier cards.

Lawrence has looked much better in 2022 than his 2021 rookie campaign, and despite two tough starts over the last two weeks, it’s good for the NFL card market to see investors buying up the key player from what many consider to be a weaker rookie class.

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Justin Herbert 2020 Select Field Level Silver PSA 10 📉 $241

2. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $222

3. Justin Herbert 2020 Optic Green Velocity PSA 10 📉 $214

4. Justin Herbert 2020 Prizm Disco PSA 10 📉 $162

5. Justin Herbert 2020 Prizm Lazer PSA 10 📉 $158

HERBERT PLUMMETS: Fractured rib cartilage certainly doesn’t sound great, but Herbert has managed to play through the injury so far and has looked good doing so. Collectors were clearly worried that Herbert might miss time, or just play poorly, so it’s not shocking to see some big dips here on a group of fairly liquid cards.

The Chargers are just 3-2 through five games, but Herbert’s 1,478 passing yards and 10:2 TD-to-INT ratio shouldn’t have investors worried. Expect these cards to tick back up in the coming weeks if Herbert continues to heal and pass for big numbers.

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Josh Allen 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 191 sales

2. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 160 sales

3. Justin Herbert 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 160 sales

4. Lamar Jackson 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 151 sales

5. Saquon Barkley 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 144 sales

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2022 Elite Football 📉 22%

2. 2022 Gold Standard Football 📉 7%

3. 2022 Legacy Football 📈 1%

4. 2022 Luminance Football 📉 27%

5. 2021 Optic Football 📉 16%

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Football 2018-2020: 📉 11%

• KEY RISER: Jalen Hurts 2020 Select Concourse PSA 10 📈 122%
• KEY DECLINER: Baker Mayfield 2018 Select Concourse PSA 10 📉 66%

Football 2010-2017: 📉 11%

• KEY RISER: Cooper Kupp 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 45%
• KEY DECLINER: Mitch Trubisky 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 82%

Football 2000-2009: 📉 9%

• KEY RISER: Eli Manning 2004 Topps Base PSA 10 📈 105%
• KEY DECLINER: Ben Roethlisberger Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 28%

Football 1990-1999: 📈📉 0%

• KEY RISER: Ray Lewis 1996 Bowman Best Base PSA 10 📈 112%
• KEY DECLINER: Brett Favre 1991 Stadium Club Base PSA 10 📉 24%

Football 1980-1989: 📈 3%

• KEY RISER: Barry Sanders 1989 Pro Set Base PSA 10 📈 23%
• KEY DECLINER: Bo Jackson 1988 Topps Base PSA 10 📉 25%

Football 1979 & Older: 📈 1%

• KEY RISER: Ron Jaworski 1976 Topps Base PSA 9 📈 56%
• KEY DECLINER: Walter Payton 1976 Topps Base PSA 9 📉 5%

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