NFL Market Movers: Can Hurts’ Cards Catch Burrow and Herbert?

Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts has been arguably the most talked-about player in the NFL so far this season — he’s been dominating on the field, has risen in fantasy football priority, and his cards have even exploded in the hobby.

Has Philly’s 6-0 start helped close the gap between Hurts and two other stars from the 2020 NFL Draft class? We cover that in more using the latest data from Market Movers.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum of 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Derrick Henry 2016 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 93%

2. Travis Kelce 2013 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 90%

3. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📈 72%

4. Lamar Jackson 2018 Select Concourse PSA 10 📈 56%

5. Josh Allen 2018 Classics Base PSA 10 📈 54%

KELCE BREAKOUT: Travis Kelce was already considered one of the best tight ends in the NFL, then he went and caught four touchdown passes in a win over the Raiders in Week 5. Kelce is already up to seven TDs this year — his career-high is 11 in a season — and he appears on pace to be more lethal than ever in the Red Zone despite seeing similar targets per game as past seasons.

Tight ends don’t get much attention in the sports card hobby, but Kelce has gotten plenty over the last month. His 2013 Prizm Base PSA 10 is one of the hottest cards in the NFL market while his entire portfolio of cards is up along with it. His PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are up 33% collectively over the last 30 days across 55 total sales.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Select Concourse Silver PSA 10 📉 75%

2. Joe Burrow 2020 Select Turbocharged PSA 10 📉 66%

3. Justin Fields 2021 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 64%

4. Mac Jones 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10 📉 61%

5. Justin Herbert 2020 Select Turbocharged PSA 10 📉 60%

IS TUA’S MARKET IN TROUBLE? Concussion issues for Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa appear to have the hobby spooked. One of the most popular buys leading into the season, Tagovailoa’s market got even hotter after several weeks of slinging TD passes to Jaylen Waddle and new-addition Tyreek Hill.

Tagovailoa is expected to start in Week 7 after his first full week of practice since Week 3, but it may take some time for his cards to recover from the missed time. His PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are down 28% collectively over the last 30 days, and several of his signature rookies are among the biggest decliners.

His 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10, 2020 Optic Base PSA 10, 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 and 2020 Select Concourse PSA 10 are all trending down over the last month, and how the hobby treats him moving forward will be something to monitor. Concussion issues may not have an immediate impact on his play, but collectors may be cautious knowing how head injuries can have serious long-term impact.

DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📈 $988

2. Jalen Hurts 2020 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 $149

3. Jalen Hurts 2020 Prizm Disco PSA 10 📈 $110

4. Stefon Diggs 2015 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 $71

5. Travis Kelce 2013 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 $69

HURTS HAS A LONG WAY TO GO: In order to catch Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, that is. Hurts’ prices have exploded this season amid Philadelphia’s 6-0 start, but it’s still somewhat surprising to see just how big the delta is between him and Burrow and Herbert.

Hurts’ 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 currently averages about $136, and as expected, lags behind Burrow and Herbert at $203 and $188, respectively. The percentage is big, but the dollar amount is manageable for most collectors. The same can’t be said for the Prizm Silver PSA 10, however.

The percentage is actually smaller here, but the price change is likely in the dealbreaker range for most collectors. Hurts’ 2020 Prizm Silver PSA 10 is up to just over $900 while Burrow is floating close to $1,500 during a massive dip and Herbert is nearly at $3,000. Hurts has been much better on the field this season, but the hobby still has a clear preference.

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Optic Holo PSA 10 📉 $400

2. Justin Herbert 2020 Optic Blue Scope PSA 10 📉 $240

3. Justin Herbert 2020 Optic Holo PSA 10 📉 $198

4. Justin Herbert 2020 Select Premier Level Silver PSA 10 📉 $152

5. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Select Concourse Silver PSA 10 📉 $149

HERBERT CONTINUES TO HURT: Justin Herbert has looked pretty good this season — especially when you consider that rib injury — but his cards keep ticking down. Some of this could be collectors worried about the fractured cartilage, and some of it could be significant price correction.

Overall, Herbert’s PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are down 19% collectively over the last 30 days, and some of his more popular mid-tier rookies continue to nosedive. If we zoom out to the last 365 days, we can see just how high Herbert’s prices were back in November of last year. Overall correction to the sports card market is happening in a big way currently, and players like Herbert — popular but not among the NFL’s active greats — stand to lose a lot in terms of dollar growth.

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Josh Allen 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 204 sales

2. Lamar Jackson 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 135 sales

3. Jalen Hurts 2020 Mosaic Base PSA 10 📈 131 sales

4. Justin Herbert 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 128 sales

5. Saquon Barkley 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 125 sales

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2022 Elite Football 📉 13%

2. 2022 Gold Standard Football 📉 7%

3. 2022 Score Football 📈 3%

4. 2022 Legacy Football 📈 7%

5. 2021 Select Football 📉 23%

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Football 2018-2020: 📉 16%

• KEY RISER: Lamar Jackson 2018 Select Concourse PSA 10 📈 56%
• KEY DECLINER: Justin Herbert 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 32%

Football 2010-2017: 📉 17%

• KEY RISER: Marcus Mariota 2015 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📈 167%
• KEY DECLINER: Carson Wentz 2016 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 67%

Football 2000-2009: 📉 3%

• KEY RISER: Larry Fitzgerald 2004 Topps Base PSA 10 📈 31%
• KEY DECLINER: Philip Rivers 2004 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 30%

Football 1990-1999: 📉 3%

• KEY RISER: John Randle 1991 Pro Set Base PSA 10 📈 56%
• KEY DECLINER: Tony Gonzalez 1997 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 32%

Football 1980-1989: 📈 3%

• KEY RISER: Tim Brown 1989 Score Base PSA 10 📈 39%
• KEY DECLINER: Bo Jackson 1988 Topps Base PSA 10 📉 31%

Football 1979 & Older: 📈 2%

• KEY RISER: James Lofton 1979 Topps Base PSA 9 📈 94%
• KEY DECLINER: Lenny Moore 1956 Topps Base PSA 6 📉 19%

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