NBA’s MVP Race Heats Up Basketball Card Market

The NBA’s regular season is in its final stretch, and three favorites have settled in as possible winners for the MVP award — and all three are seeing their card prices heat up.

Dive into the data for the MVP candidates and other trending players and cards in this week’s NBA Market Movers update.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum average of $30 and 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. De’Aaron Fox 2017 Optic Red & Yellow PSA 10 📈 90%

2. Brandon Ingram 2016 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 86%

3. Tim Duncan 1997 Fleer Base PSA 10 📈 81%

4. Stephen Curry 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 76%

5. Marvin Bagley III 2018 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 75%

CLUTCH TIME FOX: Once one of the top stars and hobby targets from that stacked 2017 NBA Draft class, De’Aaron Fox‘s market had cooled considerably as the Kings struggled to make the playoffs. This season has seen a major shift on that front, however, and suddenly the Kings have looked like one of the best in the West while Fox has kept hitting game-winners to keep Sacramento rolling.

The success has spilled into his market, as expected, and his PSA 10 rookies tracked by Market Movers are now up 10% collectively over the last 30 days. One interesting dynamic of his market has been the key targets for collectors — it’s mostly been Fox’s lineup from Optic while his 2017 Prizm Base PSA 10 has actually declined over that same period.

PRICE PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Bol Bol 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 49%

2. Trae Young 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📉 45%

3. LeBron James 2003 Campioni di Future Gold /500 PSA 10 📉 45%

4. Paolo Banchero 2022 Panini Instant First Look PSA 10 📉 40%

5. Michael Jordan 1991 Upper Deck All-Star PSA 10 📉 40%

INSTANT DIP: Paolo Banchero’s market has cooled some despite him possibly winning Rookie of the Year, but his place in this space again shows how Panini’s Instant lineup continues to struggle once the flagship sets release. It was really surprising to see how well his Instant cards were performing late last year, but now collectors have his Hoops rookie to focus on, and the market has adjusted accordingly.

Banchero’s 2022 Panini Instant Draft Night PSA 10 has maintained some solid price points, but his market still lacks true graded volume as Panini’s release calendar has lagged behind a normal schedule.

DOLLAR AMOUNT RISERS

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo 2013 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 $314

2. Nikola Jokic 2015 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 $247

3. Kobe Bryant 1996 Topps Base PSA 10 📈 $184

4. Jayson Tatum 2017 Optic Shock PSA 10 📈 $138

5. Damian Lillard 2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 $115

MVP BUILD-UP: The NBA’s regular season is winding down, and a three-man race between Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid has emerged for the MVP award. All three have seen their overall markets tick up over the last month, but it’s Antetokounmpo and Jokic landing here this week based on their bumps in dollar amount.

Antetokounmpo has had a strong hobby market for years now, but it’s taken Jokic multiple years of MVP-level play to grab the attention of collectors. As expected, Jokic’s 2015 Prizm Base PSA 10 has been the main target for many collectors, and it’s now up to its highest price over the last year.

DOLLAR AMOUNT DECLINERS

1. LeBron James 2003 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 $1,180

2. LeBron James 2003 Campioni di Future Gold /500 PSA 10 📉 $535

3. LeBron James 2003 Topps Base PSA 10 📉 $423

4. Ja Morant 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $330

5. Luka Doncic 2018 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $183

MORANT CRASHES: You can’t argue against Ja Morant‘s production on the court, but his off-the-court issues are adding up and his card market is likely reflecting that. Memphis remains one of the best teams in the West, but Morant’s recent legal issues could impact his career far beyond 2023.

Morant’s PSA 10 rookies tracked by Market Movers are down 11% collectively over the last 30 days, and his 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10 is one of the biggest decliners. One of the hottest cards in the hobby in recent months, that card is now down 33% over the last month despite maintaining solid sales volume.

His 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 has been hit with a similar drop, and can now be snagged for less than $100.

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Ja Morant 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 145 sales

2. Luka Doncic 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 127 sales

3. Anthony Edwards 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 124 sales

4. Zion Williamson 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 112 sales

5. LeBron James 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 87 sales

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2022 Prizm Draft Picks Basketball 📉 17%

2. 2022 Hoops Basketball 📉 4%

3. 2021 Mosaic Basketball 📉 11%

4. 2021 Contenders Optic Basketball 📉 12%

5. 2021 Immaculate Basketball 📈 5%

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Basketball 2018-2020: 📉 4%

• KEY RISER: Luka Doncic 2018 Optic Holo PSA 10 📈 4%
• KEY DECLINER: Ja Morant 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 33%

Basketball 2010-2017: 📈 3%

• KEY RISER: Giannis Antetokounmpo 2013 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 33%
• KEY DECLINER: LeBron James 2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 16%

Basketball 2000-2009: 📈📉 0%

• KEY RISER: Stephen Curry 2009 Bowman ’48 PSA 10 📈 9%
• KEY DECLINER: LeBron James 2003 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 17%

Basketball 1990-1999: 📉 1%

• KEY RISER: Kobe Bryant 1996 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📈 38%
• KEY DECLINER: Shaquille O’Neal 1992 Topps Gold PSA 10 📉 24%

Basketball 1980-1989: 📈 3%

• KEY RISER: Bird/Erving/Johnson 1980 Topps PSA 8 📈 13%
• KEY DECLINER: Michael Jordan 1987 Fleer PSA 9 📉 17%

Basketball 1979 & Older: 📉 1%

• KEY RISER: Elvin Hayes 1969 Topps Base PSA 8 📈 22%
• KEY DECLINER: Nate Thurmond 1969 Topps Base PSA 8 📉 38%

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