January Transfer Window: Moukoko Makes Headlines, Returns To Dortmund

Wake up everyone! While the World Cup is over, the European Football Transfer Window is here, and soccer card investors need to pay attention. But if you’re still snoozing on soccer after Messi and Mbappe squared off in Qatar, don’t worry, I’m here to catch you up to speed with our UEFA Champions League Cards Market Movers Report.

The premise of this piece is to review movement of players who are on UEFA Champions League Clubs.

Before we jump into the data, there are a few key highlights that may have driven some pricing:

• Youssoufa Moukoko signed a new contract with Borussia Dortmund, after many linked him to Chelsea and FC Barcelona
• Joao Felix signed with Atletico, only to be leant out to Chelsea
• Mykhailo Mudryk signed with Chelsea over Arsenal
• Cody Gakpo signed with Liverpool
• Cristiano Ronaldo signed with Al-Nassr
• Kylian Mbappe scored 5 goals against Pays de Cassel in PSG’s French Cup win on January 23
• Arsenal and Leeds are apparently eyeing USMNT’s Weston McKennie
• AC Milan Interested In Christian Pulisic
• Ryan Gravenberch to stay in Munich

Heading into February’s Fixtures and Friendlies, we’ll get to see the following players square off:

• Milan (Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Sergino Dest) vs. Tottenham (Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son)
• Paris (Mbappe, Messi, Neymar) vs. Bayern (Alphonso Davies, Ryan Gravenberch, Sadio Mane)
• Dortmund (Giovanni Reyna, Jude Bellingham, Youssoufa Moukoko, Karim Adeyemi) vs. Chelsea (Mason Mount, Christian Pulisic, Joao Felix, Mykhailo Mudryk, Kai Havertz)
• Liverpool (Cody Gakpo, Mohamed Salah) vs. Real Madrid (Vini Jr., Eduardo Camavinga)
• Leipzig (Christopher Nkunku) vs. Manchester City (Erling Haaland, Jack Grealish, Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden)

One name you won’t see below because he doesn’t exactly have investable cards yet, but is someone you should look out for in future sets is Mykhailo Mudryk, mentioned above. He’s a young phenom that only has a Topps Total First Edition and a Topps Now RC card – both of which are actually selling like hot cakes right now.

Okay, now it’s time to get into the top movers. 

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum average of $15 and 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Erling Haaland 2019 Topps Finest UCL #91 Base PSA 10 74.9%

2. Marcus Rashford 2018 Prizm World Cup #72 Base PSA 10 35.9%

3. Neymar Jr. 2018 Prizm World Cup #25 Base PSA 10 32.3%

4. Ansu Fati 2019 Topps Chrome UCL #45 Base PSA 10 39.2% 

5. Jude Bellingham 2020 Topps Chrome Bundesliga #31 Base PSA 10 31% 

A RETURN TO RELEVANCY: What stands out to me on this list are a few guys who returned to relevancy after being afterthoughts for various reasons for the last few months. The predictable one is Erling Haaland, the Man City Megastar. It makes sense to see his cards back on the rise now that the Premier League and Champions League are back on the pitch after his World Cup absence. Another one is Marcus Rashford. The once top prospect has 14 goals in 24 total matches this season, appearing to regain his form after only 4 goals in 25 matches last year, and he has five goals in his last five matches. Ansu Fati’s liquidity on the other hand could come with his return to health, as he’s played in each of FC Barca’s last five games, scoring in two of them, and starting in two of them.

Source: Market Movers

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum average of $15 and multiple sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Kylian Mbappe 2018 Panini World Cup Stickers #209 Black Back PSA 10 62.4%

2. Kylian Mbappe 2020 Mosaic Euro #112 Choice Peacock SSP PSA 10 57.2%

3. Kylian Mbappe 2018 Donruss #132 Base (National) PSA 10 53.9%

4. Jude Bellingham 2020 Topps Merlin Chrome UCL #31 Base PSA 10 52.7%

5. Jadon Sancho 2018 Donruss #189 Press Proof Red PSA 10 50%

LOGICAL FALL: With so much hype around Mbappe in December after his heroic World Cup performance for France, it’s only natural that many of his cards would decline in January after the hype wore off. Additionally, two young stars who haven’t exactly lived up to their hype recently, Jude Bellingham and Jadon Sancho, saw some large dips in value as well.

Source: Market Movers

DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Lionel Messi 2021 Donruss #1 Kaboom! PSA 10 $510+

2. Kylian Mbappe 2018 Topps Chrome UCL #41 Purple Refractor /250 PSA 10 $376+

3. Sadio Mane 2020 Prizm Premier League Color Blast SSP PSA 10 $292+

4. Erling Haaland 2019 Topps Chrome UCL #74 Blue Refractor /150 PSA 10 $225+

5. Erling Haaland 2019 Topps Finest UCL #91 Base PSA 10 $193+

INSERTS, SHORT PRINTS & SERIAL NUMBERS RULE!: The names and cards on this list should surprise nobody. At the top, we have the GOAT, Lionel Messi, coming off a World Cup victory for Argentina, and separating himself from Cristiano Ronaldo in the race for the best of all time, as Messi returns to PSG and the Champions League, while Ronald heads to Saudi Arabia and into irrelevance. Then we have Mbappe, Mane and a Haaland card, all of which are SSPs or serial numbered refractors. The only outlier here is the Haaland 2019 Topps Finest UCL #91 Base PSA 10, which grew by just $15 more than the next card up, a 2017 Kylian Mbappe Select Field Level Silver PSA 10 (another short print).

Source: Market Movers

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Neymar Jr. 2021 Donruss #10 Kaboom! PSA 10 $450

2. Kylian Mbappe 2020 Mosaic Euro #112 Choice Peacock SSP PSA 10 $429

3. Erling Haaland 2019 Topps Chrome Bundesliga #72 Refractor PSA 10 $400

4. Erling Haaland 2020 Obsidian #3 Black Color Blast SSP PSA 10 $303

5. Kylian Mbappe 2018 Prizm World Cup #80 Silver PSA 10 $274

TIME TO CATCH SOME FALLING STARS?: While the cards above have dropped in pricing, I believe based on both the players and the cards, that this is indicative of a potential buying opportunity for these cards, and not necessarily a real drop in perceived value. Reason being, all of the cards above have a population of less than 300. In fact, the top two cards are popular inserts with pop counts less than 30. The two Haaland cards, while qualifying as a dollar decliner, are only down 9.4% and 21.1% respectively, and the Mbappe 2018 Prizm World Cup Silver PSA 10 is only down 21.4%. If you’re holding these cards, I wouldn’t be too concerned, as these all will likely rise in value during future soccer hype cycles. 

Source: Market Movers

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Kylian Mbappe 2018 Prizm World Cup #80 Base PSA 10 – 67 sales

2. Marcus Rashford 2018 Prizm World Cup #72 Base PSA 10 – 31 sales

3. Kylian Mbappe 2017 Topps Chrome UCL #41 Base PSA 10 – 30 sales

4. Youssoufa Moukoko 2020 Topps Now Bundesliga #45 Base PSA 10 – 29 sales

5. Jude Bellingham 2020 Topps Now Budnesliga #4 Base PSA 10 – 27 sales

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2021 Donruss Blaster Box Soccer 226%

2. 2020 Mosaic La Liga Hobby Box Soccer 53.2%

3. 2020 Topps Finest UCL Hobby Box Soccer 37.2%

4. 2020 Chronicles Hobby Box Soccer 35.9%

5. 2018 Donruss Blaster Box Soccer 29.6%

Source: Market Movers

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Soccer 2018-2020: 1.7%

• KEY RISER: Erling Haaland 2019 Topps Finest UCL #91 Base PSA 10 74.9%
• KEY DECLINER: Kylian Mbappe 2018 Panini World Cup Stickers #209 Black Back PSA 10 62.4%

Soccer 2010-2017: -3.6%

• KEY RISER: Samuel Eto’o 2014 Prizm World Cup Signatures Raw 284%
• KEY DECLINER: Lionel Messi 2015 Select #65 Base Raw 85%

Soccer 2000-2009: -13.8%

• KEY RISER: Zinedine Zidane 2006 Panini World Cup Base PSA 9 61%
• KEY DECLINER: Lionel Messi 2006 Panini World Cup #47 Base Raw 57.5%

Source: Market Movers

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Paul Hickey is a regular contributor to Sports Card Investor, the creator of the Sports Card Investment Report at NoOffseason.com, and the host of the Sports Card Strategy Show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube. He can be found on Instagram at @sportscardstrategy and on Twitter @nooffseasoncard.