Has The F1 Market Totally Tanked? Here’s How You Can Still Make Money

While the F1 card market is down 60% over the last 365 days, it’s actually leveled off and even risen a bit since April 1. 

Many F1 investors were burned by prospecting too hard and going too deep. But post drop-off, there is still a way to make money flipping F1 cards into the future. It’s much safer and data driven. Let’s dissect step by step, starting with some data.

Featuring 39 cards, here’s a look at the market index for all F1 cards from the years 1966-2021 according to Market Movers. We want to show you what opportunities still exist within the F1 market during the aftermath of the tank.

Below we’ve listed the top six PSA 10 graded F1 cards by sales volume from the last 365 Days. Included are the changes in % and $: 

1. Max Verstappen 2020 Topps Chrome F1 #6 Base PSA 10: 255 sales; down 47%, down $113
2. Lewis Hamilton 2020 Topps Chrome F1 #1 Base PSA 10: 216 sales; down 62%, down $297
3. Max Verstappen 2020 Topps Chrome F1 Sapphire Edition #6 PSA 10: 169 sales; down 40.6%, down $270
4. Charles Leclerc 2020 Topps Chrome F1 #4 Base PSA 10: 156 sales; down 67%, down $102
5. Lewis Hamilton 2020 Topps Chrome F1 #TT-1 Track Tags PSA 10: 131 sales; down 58%, down $97.50
6. George Russell 2020 Topps Chrome F1 #19 Base PSA 10: 120 sales; down 59%, down $108

Among the top six cards above, there does appear to be a solid time to buy: December.

Let’s zoom in on some of the individual charts to examine and narrow our focus. When we look at Max Verstappen’s 2020 Topps Chrome F1 Sapphire Edition #6 PSA 10, we see a pattern where it sold for less than $240 in December, and then for more than $400 in early March, perfectly aligning with the offseason and the beginning of the next season.

We see the same exact pattern with Verstappen’s 2020 Topps Chrome Formula 1 #6 Base PSA 10. It sold for less than $90 in December, and more than $200 in March.

Based on legacy data, Hamilton’s 2020 Topps Chrome F1 #1 Base PSA 10 is flippable as well, as it sold for $134 in December and for $233 in March.

Want to test the same data pattern with a lesser driver? Here’s Charles Leclerc’s December low and early March high.

Leclerc’s 2020 Topps Chrome F1 #4 Base PSA 10 sold for $56 in December but went for $100 in early March.

Even George Russell’s 2020 Topps Chrome F1 #19 Base PSA 10 sold for $41 on November 30, 2022 and for $75 on February 24, 2023.

Based on this date, there are two ways to profit from flipping F1 cards within a 12-month window moving forward.

1. The Risky Way: Follow the news during the summer and make educated guesses on prospects who could earn seats in August, or current F1 drivers who are rumored to swap seats and be in the news cycle. Consider targeting August for a sell window.

The risk here is pretty enormous, because not only do you have to be correct in your predictions, but the market ultimately has to agree with you and love the driver you invested in. 

2. The Safe Way: Buy in December, when all of the top-tier drivers are down in value, potentially staying focused on only buying Verstappen. Based on last year’s data, when the cycle repeats itself, you should be able to sell for a profit in late Q1, making a profit in a quick 3- to 4-month cycle.

You could wait for a performance spike and sell for even more in June, but that adds in a risk factor of needing driver performance to be high. Taking the risk factor out and selling at the start of the F1 season hype is the safe way to profit.

This is smart because you’re using pattern recognition and investing in the drivers that are already in demand. The market loves them and you’re buying their liquid cards at a time when less people are paying attention, resulting in lower prices. Then, you’re selling them at a time when the market is paying attention, and much more likely to profit.

With the Sports Card Investor app, you can profit from the hobby you love by keeping up with trending cards, tracking real-time prices with Market Movers and buying items on eBay. Download the industry-leading app here for Apple or Android

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Paul Hickey is a regular contributor to Sports Card Investor, the creator of the Sports Card Investment Report at NoOffseason.com, and the host of the Sports Card Strategy Show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube. He can be found on Instagram at @sportscardstrategy and on Twitter @nooffseasoncard.