Can the Sports Card Hobby Trust Daniel Jones’ New Market Prices?

Few players have seen their card market completely change as much as New York Giants QB Daniel Jones over the last month. But is his market trustworthy, or will it simply collapse at the first sign of resistance?

Read about Jones and other trending players and cards in this week’s NFL Market Movers update.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum average of $30 and 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Jarrett Stidham 2019 Select Field Level Silver PSA 10 📈 828%

2. Daniel Jones 2019 Select Field Level Silver PSA 10 📈 326%

3. Daniel Jones 2019 Select Premier Level Silver PSA 10 📈 207%

4. Daniel Jones 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 184%

5. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 📈 176%

IS JONES TRUSTWORTHY? Few players have seen their card market reshaped as quickly and drastically this season as Daniel Jones. His PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are up 54% collectively over the last 30 days and a variety of base and more short-printed rookies are all trending up.

Cards like his 2019 Select Field Level Silver PSA 10 have recently sold for nearly $160 after going for less than $40 a month ago. His 2019 Prizm Blue Wave PSA 10 has gotten similar treatment, and has recently sold for close to $200 after going for $60 just 30 days ago. His two popular base rookies — the 2019 Prizm and 2019 Donruss — have seen big jumps, too.

There’s no arguing that Jones’ market has been completely transformed as the Giants secured a playoff spot for the first time in six years, but the major question for collectors is whether any of this market is sustainable. Jones finished the season 9-6-1 as the starter with a fairly unimpressive 3,205 passing yards, 15 TDs and 5 INT. Being the starting QB for a New York franchise is certainly a positive for Jones, but it’s also important to remember that, until recently, most fans assumed the Giants were going to move on — is this recent stretch enough to outweigh his 21-31 career record?

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Mosaic Pink Camo PSA 10 📉 50%

2. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 48%

3. Justin Jefferson 2020 Mosaic Pink Camo PSA 10 📉 44%

4. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Phoenix Fire Burst PSA 10 📉 43%

5. Derrick Henry 2016 Optic Base PSA 10 📉 42%

DROP CONTINUES: Tua Tagovailoa has become a regular in the declining prices space after a strong stretch of positive price growth this season. The addition of Tyreek Hill turned Miami’s offense into one of the most dynamic in the league, and it appeared Tagovailoa had finally turned the corner in terms of production.

Concussion issues limited Tagovailoa to just 13 games in 2022, and his status for Miami’s playoff showdown with Buffalo is still uncertain while in concussion protocol. The third-year QB was extremely productive when on the field, but those concussion concerns — and possibly some overall market fatigue — have his key lineup of base rookies all down significantly over the last month and beyond.

Tagovailoa’s 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 has been the biggest decliner over the last 30 days, with a 49% drop that pulled the card down from $91 to about $47. Base rookies from Optic, Donruss and Select are all down, too, and it’s a little hard to see anything other than a big playoff performance pushing his market into positive territory.

DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📈 $618

2. Aaron Rodgers 2005 Upper Deck Rookie Premiere Base PSA 10 📈 $177

3. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Prizm Red Ice PSA 10 📈 $153

4. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 📈 $144

5. Daniel Jones 2019 Select Field Level Silver PSA 10 📈 $121

LAWRENCE STAYS HOT: Much like Daniel Jones, few players in the sports card hobby have been as hot as Trevor Lawrence over the last month or so. A regular in Sports Card Investor’s Top 5 Hottest Sports Cards, Lawrence has seen his market explode as the Jaguars slipped into the AFC Playoffs.

The Jaguars finished out the regular season with five straight wins with Lawrence piling up nearly 1,300 passing yards, eight touchdowns and just two interceptions. Worries about his long-term potential have mostly cooled, and suddenly the sports card hobby is seeing Lawrence’s prices tick upward closer and closer to stars like Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.

Lawrence still has some ground to make up on cards like his 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10, but when comparing to the 2020 Donruss Base for Herbert and Burrow he’s closing fast with extremely high sales volume. He still has plenty to prove, of course, but a strong playoff performance — or even just a single playoff win — could really shake up the hobby hierarchy for the league’s young QBs.

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Josh Allen 2018 Prizm Instant Impact PSA 10 📉 $115

2. Joe Burrow 2020 Prizm Lazer PSA 10 📉 $89

3. Joe Burrow 2020 Optic Holo PSA 10 📉 $70

4. Lamar Jackson 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 $70

5. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Prizm Disco PSA 10 📉 $67

MARKET MIRAGE? While several of Joe Burrow‘s cards are among the biggest dollar amount decliners over the last month, collectors should at least be relieved that this looks like a small mirage impacting a small number of his cards. Overall, Burrow’s PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are up 10% collectively over the last 30 days, and his key base rookies across the major sets are all up, too.

While Burrow’s Optic Holo has taken a big hit over the last month, his Optic Base has shown strong price growth over that same period with a 70% jump across 41 sales. Higher-priced cards often pop up in this space even with small price percentage changes, so it’s always important to dive into a player’s total market as a few outliers could always land here.

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 169 sales

2. Josh Allen 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 125 sales

3. Justin Herbert 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 110 sales

4. Joe Burrow 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 110 sales

5. Justin Herbert 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 96 sales

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2022 Absolute Football 📈 15%

2. 2022 Certified Football 📈 29%

3. 2022 Origins Football 📈 14%

4. 2022 Score Football 📈 33%

5. 2022 Elite Football 📈 22%

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Football 2018-2020: 📈 5%

• KEY RISER: Joe Burrow 2020 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 70%
• KEY DECLINER: Lamar Jackson 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 33%

Football 2010-2017: 📉 1%

• KEY RISER: Patrick Mahomes 2017 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 14%
• KEY DECLINER: Deshaun Watson 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 23%

Football 2000-2009: 📉 10%

• KEY RISER: Tom Brady 2000 Bowman Base PSA 9 📈 13%
• KEY DECLINER: Tom Brady 2002 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 23%

Football 1990-1999: 📉 2%

• KEY RISER: Peyton Manning 1998 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📈 15%
• KEY DECLINER: Terrell Davis 1995 SP Base PSA 10 📉 37%

Football 1980-1989: 📈 1%

• KEY RISER: Reggie White 1986 Topps Base PSA 10 📈 41%
• KEY DECLINER: Jerry Rice 1986 Topps Base PSA 9 📉 13%

Football 1979 & Older: 📈 1%

• KEY RISER: Ken Anderson 1973 Topps Base PSA 9 📈 59%
• KEY DECLINER: Nile Kinnick 1955 Topps All American Base PSA 6 📉 23%

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