Market Impact: Messi to Miami; Bellingham to Real Madrid

Perhaps the biggest news in the history of US Soccer happened this week, and it had nothing to do with the US Men’s National Team, but rather the MLS. Lionel Messi, the best player in the world at age 35, announced he’ll sign with Inter Miami. This makes him easily the most accomplished and greatest player in the history of the MLS. While he’ll no longer be in the UEFA Champions League, he’s obviously still a big part of this report, as he’s played his entire career for FC Barcelona and PSG — both Champions League fixtures.

Another big transfer this past week is that of Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid. The 19-year-old midfielder is the most sought after acquisition of the offseason, and is a huge get for the storied La Liga Club, who won the 2022 Champions League Final.

Many astute hobbyists have invested in both Messi and Bellingham in anticipation of this transfer window, and are listing their cards due to the stars being front and center in the sports news cycle.

We’re diving into the recent movement of their cards and players who are on UEFA Champions League Clubs.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum average of $15 and multiple sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Eden Hazard 2014 Prizm World Cup #21 Base PSA 10 – 354%
2. Neymar Jr. 2016 Select #21 Terrace PSA 10 – 206%
3. Phil Foden 2018 Donruss #179 Base PSA 10 – 193%
4. Neymar Jr. 2018 Prizm World Cup #25 Silver PSA 10 – 125%
5. Neymar Jr. 2014 Prizm World Cup #112 Base PSA 10 – 118%

NEYMAR GAINING IN POPULARITY?: While Messi and Bellingham have dominated the headlines, rumors have been swirling around Neymar Jr. as well. He’s rumored to be either headed to FC Barcelona, Chelsea, Arsenal or elsewhere. Three of his cards from 2014, 2016 and 2018 are among the top five percentage growth risers in the Champions League.

Source: Market Movers

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum average of $15 and multiple sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Jadon Sancho 2018 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League #86 Base PSA 10 – 75$
2. Karim Adeyemi 2020 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League #99 Refractor PSA 10 – 69%
3. Callum Hudson-Odoi 2019 Prizm Premier League #29 Base PSA 10 – 68%
4. Eden Hazard 2016 Prizm Euro #22 Base PSA 10 – 66%
5. Youssoufa Moukoko 2020 Topps Now Bundesliga #45 Base PSA 10 – 62%

PROSPECTS DON’T ALWAYS PAN OUT: Prospecting is fun in every sport, but it’s the riskiest way to try to make money in flipping soccer cards. Case in point: players like Jadon Sancho, Karim Adeyemi and Youssoufa Moukoko are phenomenal soccer players, but aren’t always generating enough buzz to support them being solid hobby investments.

Source: Market Movers

DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Lionel Messi 2006 Panini World Cup #47 Base PSA 10 – +$389 (12%)
2. Cristiano Ronaldo 2017 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League #93 Refractor (With Ball) PSA 10 – +$130 (90%)
3. Bukayo Saka 2022 Prizm World Cup #7 Manga /(SSP) PSA 10 – $125 (33%)
4. Pedri 2022 Prizm World Cup #18 Manga /(SSP) PSA 10 – $119 (36%)
5. Kylian Mbappe 2017 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League #41 Base PSA 10 $83.49 (35%)

MESSI AND THE MANGA: It’s no surprise to see big names like Messi, Ronaldo and Mbappe among the top five dollar growth risers in this particular cycle, especially with Messi dominating headlines regarding the transfer to Miami. But the Manga SSP from the 2022 Prizm World Cup is popping up as one of the top selling cards, especially for young stars like Saka and Pedri. Manga appears to have arrived alongside other SSPs like Color Blast and Kaboom! as one of the most sought after cards in soccer.

Source: Market Movers

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Lionel Messi 2022 Donruss #2 Kaboom! /(SSP) PSA 10 – $833 (-24%)
2. Kylian Mbappe 2018 Prizm World Cup #80 Red & Blue Wave PSA 10 – $244 (-36%)
3. Lionel Messi 2022 Panini Instant World Cup #39 Base PSA 10 (Print Run: 796) – $217 (-48%)
4. Kylian Mbappe 2022 Prizm World Cup #101 Blue /299 PSA 10 – $170 (-56%)
5. Erling Haaland 2019 Topps Chrome Bundesliga #72 Base PSA 10 – $164 (-25%)

NOT ALL MESSI CARDS RISING: As hobby veterans already know, not all cards are created equal, thus when a player hits the news cycle, like Messi’s transfer to Miami, or Erling Haaland winning the Premier League and the Champions League, it doesn’t mean all of their cards skyrocket in value, but rather only the right cards do. Taking it a step further, with SSPs like Kaboom! with a very low gem rate, it can be common to see a dip simply due to lack of a large sales volume. Messi has Kaboom! cards from several years, so it’s not a huge shock to see his 2022 version down at the moment.

Source: Market Movers

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Lionel Messi 2022 Panini Instant World Cup #118 Base (Print Run: 22,081) – PSA 10 – 49 sales
2. Youssoufa Moukoko 2020 Topps Now Bundesliga #45 Base PSA 10 – 41 sales
3. Lionel Messi 2014 Prizm World Cup #12 Base PSA 10 – 29 sales
4. Lionel Messi 2022 Prizm World Cup #7 Base PSA 10 – 24 sales
5. Vinicius Jr. 2018 Donruss #177 Base PSA 10 – 20 sales

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. Topps MLS 2022 Hobby Box Soccer – 75%
2. Immaculate 2021 Hobby Box Soccer – 53%
3. Topps Chrome Bundesliga 2021 Hobby Lite Box Soccer – 68%
4. Prizm World Cup 2022 Choice Box Soccer – 36%
5. Impeccable Premier League 2021 Hobby Box Soccer – 23%

Source: Market Movers

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Soccer 2018-2020: -7%

• KEY RISER: Phil Foden 2018 Donruss #179 Base PSA 10 – 193%
• KEY DECLINER: Kylian Mbappe 2018 Prizm World Cup #80 Red & Blue Wave PSA 10 – $244 (36%)

Soccer 2010-2017: 12%

• KEY RISER: Eden Hazard 2014 Prizm World Cup #21 Base PSA 10 – 354%
• KEY DECLINER: N/A

Soccer 2000-2009: 1.7%

• KEY RISER: Lionel Messi 2006 Panini World Cup #47 Base PSA 10 – $389 (11.6%)
• KEY DECLINER: N/A

Source: Market Movers

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Paul Hickey is a regular contributor to Sports Card Investor, the creator of the Sports Card Investment Report at NoOffseason.com, and the host of the Sports Card Strategy Show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube. He can be found on Instagram at @sportscardstrategy and on Twitter @nooffseasoncard.