NFL Market Movers: Allen, Tagovailoa Get Big Bumps

While Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen is making his case for runaway MVP, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has shown doubters that once given the weapons he was worth the wait.

From Allen and Tagovailoa to Tom Brady and Trey Lance, here’s a look at the football market’s biggest risers and decliners, according to Market Movers data.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum of 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Score Base PSA 10 📈 253%

2. Tom Brady 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 165%

3. Justin Jefferson 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 131%

4. Patrick Mahomes 2020 Mosaic Base PSA 10 📈 128%

5. Josh Allen 2018 Select Concourse PSA 10 📈 122%

BY ANY MEANS: When looking at price growth risers, sometimes you have weeks where some oddball cards pop up, and this week we see two of those with Tua Tagovailoa and Tom Brady. Tagovailoa’s Score is a college uniform, so most investors avoid these cards, but when a player is trending up overall as much as Tagovailoa you’ll see collectors often snagging anything they can — that’s likely what we’re seeing here.

It’s also worth noting that we try to avoid featuring cards that are considered low-dollar, and this Score is now up to $30, which is right around the dollar minimum we look at when including cards.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Davis Mills 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10 📉 73%

2. JuJu Smith-Schuster 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 69%

3. Trey Lance 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10 📉 64%

4. Trey Lance 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 📉 63%

5. Derek Carr 2014 Topps Chrome Refractor PSA 10 📉 62%

LANCE TANKS: A broken ankle has ended Trey Lance’s season on the field, and likely has tanked his cards off the field indefinitely. Lance was already trending down, for what it’s worth, but the season-ending injury will likely all but end any growth from Lance’s market until his cards are so cheap collectors will almost have to buy them. It’s hard to imagine this injury being career-threatening, so Lance might be worth checking in on in a few months to see if he’s a sneaky-good buy.

DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Barry Sanders 1989 Score Base PSA 10 📈 $258

2. Josh Allen 2018 Select Concourse PSA 10 📈 $248

3. Josh Allen 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 $168

4. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 $148

5. Tom Brady 2000 Skybox Dominion Rookies Pairs PSA 10 📈 $134

CIRCLING THE WAGONS: At this point it would be a little shocking if Josh Allen wasn’t among the biggest dollar growth risers based on his play across the first two weeks. An early MVP favorite, Allen has massive expectations and anything less than a Super Bowl appearance for Buffalo might be a little disappointing.

One thing that is interesting about Allen’s cards, though, is how much of a delta there is between his Base Optic PSA 10 and his Select Concourse PSA 10 — that Select has a much lower print run and pop count and even includes an action shot but is currently selling for $200 less.

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Justin Herbert 2020 Select Field Level Silver PSA 10 📉 $234

2. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Optic Holo PSA 10 📉 $221

3. Trey Lance 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 📉 $163

4. Dak Prescott 2016 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $146

5. Kyler Murray 2019 Select Field Level Silver PSA 10 📉 $145

MAHOMES SIGHTING: It’s kind of interesting to see Patrick Mahomes land in this space, but it doesn’t take long to realize it’s just a product of his cards being really expensive, and any fluctuation in price percentage can land him here. As you can see on the chart below, Mahomes’ 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 is only down 9% over the last 30 days, but that still makes it a $220 drop due to a $2,000+ price point.

So if you’re holding Mahomes, don’t freak out — these things happen.

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Josh Allen 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 207 sales

2. Justin Herbert 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 142 sales

3. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 129 sales

4. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic NFL Debut PSA 10 📈 126 sales

5. Lamar Jackson 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 123 sales

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2022 Legacy Football 📉 1%

2. 2021 Optic Football 📉 5%

3. 2022 Elite Football 📉 9%

4. 2021 Prizm Football Draft Picks 📈 17%

5. 2021 Obsidian Football 📈 2%

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Football 2018-2020: 📈 1.9%

• KEY RISER: Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 74%
• KEY DECLINER: Kyler Murray 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 17%

Football 2010-2017: 📉 1.1%

• KEY RISER: Tom Brady 2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 55%
• KEY DECLINER: Russell Wilson 2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 34%

Football 2000-2009: 📉 9.4%

• KEY RISER: Aaron Rodgers 2005 Topps Chrome PSA 10 📈 20%
• KEY DECLINER: Matt Ryan 2008 Topps Chrome PSA 10 📉 41%

Football 1990-1999: 📉 9.8%

• KEY RISER: Warren Sapp 1995 SP Base PSA 10 📈 73%
• KEY DECLINER: Emmitt Smith 1990 Score Supplemental Base PSA 10 📉 23%

Football 1980-1989: 📈 1.1%

• KEY RISER: Troy Aikman 1989 Score Base PSA 10 📈 21%
• KEY DECLINER: Jerry Rice 1986 Base PSA 9 📉 27%

Football 1979 & Older: 📉 0.9%

• KEY RISER: Joe Namath 1965 Topps Base PSA 6 📈 5%
• KEY DECLINER: Joe Green 1971 Topps Base PSA 8 📉 42%

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