NFL Market Movers: Should Joe Burrow Collectors Be Worried?

The NFL season finally kicked off this past weekend, and while several sports card hobby stars put up huge numbers in big wins, others had disastrous outings in Week 1.

From Joe Burrow‘s major letdown to Josh Allen‘s dominate Thursday win, here’s a look at key risers and decliners from the NFL’s opening games.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum of 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Gardner Minshew II 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 75%

2. Cam Newton 2011 Topps Base PSA 10 📈 75%

3. Saquon Barkley 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 70%

4. Patrick Mahomes 2020 Mosaic Green PSA 10 📈 67%

5. DeAndre Hopkins 2013 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 66%

BARKLEY RETURNS: New York Giants star RB Saquon Barkley has been a hobby favorite due to his dynamic play in the running game, but his inability to stay healthy has been more than problematic for his collectors over the past two seasons. He missed almost all of 2020, and just didn’t look right in 2021. This season, collectors are hoping he turns the corner and is able to remain healthy.

While Barkley’s 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 has been the big riser in terms of price percentage, it’s worth noting that his 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 and 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 are going up, too. Any of those cards could be a good buy if he remains on the field in 2022.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Drew Lock 2019 Select Concourse PSA 10 📉 71%

2. Zach Wilson 2021 Mosaic Reactive Orange PSA 10 📉 67%

3. Drew Lock 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 60%

4. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Optic Base PSA 10 📉 60%

5. Trey Lance 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 📉 53%

LOCK FALLS: As expected, Drew Lock’s hobby value has tanked since losing the Seattle Seahawks starting QB job to Geno Smith. Lock’s hobby stock has always been on uneven ground because, well, he hasn’t been very good. But starting QBs almost always have decent upside for prospectors, so his market has managed to stick around.

Overall, Lock’s PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are down 38% collectively over the last 30 days, and it’s especially troubling for Lock collectors that signature rookies like that 2019 Select Concourse and 2019 Prizm Base have accounted for the bulk of the dip.

DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 $244

2. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 $241

3. Josh Allen 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 $105

4. Josh Allen 2018 Select Concourse PSA 10 📈 $92

5. Ja’Marr Chase 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 📈 $63

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Joe Burrow 2020 Optic Holo PSA 10 📉 $248

2. Barry Sanders 1989 Score Base PSA 10 📉 $198

3. Dak Prescott 2016 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $159

4. Trey Lance 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 📉 $146

5. Joe Burrow 2020 Select Premier Level Silver PSA 10 📉 $139

TIME TO WORRY? It’s fair to feel a little uneasy about Joe Burrow’s market after seeing several of his rookies dipping amid a five-turnover Week 1. It’s probably not time to panic, though, as several of his key rookies are still showing positive signs in terms of sales volume or minimal dip in price percentage.

Below we can see that his 2020 Optic Base PSA 10, 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 and 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 are all down slightly — the Optic is down the most at 21% over the last 30 days — but it’s hard to look at this chart and feel especially alarmed.

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Josh Allen 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 169 sales

2. Justin Herbert 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 126 sales

3. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic Base PSA 10 📈 123 sales

4. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic NFL Debut PSA 10 📈 122 sales

5. Lamar Jackson 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 107 sales

SALES KING: While stars like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are topping the Market Movers charts in terms of dollar and price growth, Justin Herbert remains king of transactions. He’s an early favorite for MVP and is expected by many to be among the league leaders in passing yards and touchdowns, so you can’t really blame the hobby for loading up on key rookies before the season ramps up.

The sales volume here isn’t surprising, but what’s actually impressive is how Herbert’s Donruss Base and Mosaic Base have maintained positive price growth despite the volume — cards with this many sales tend to hold close to even or decline in price over this period of time.

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2022 Legacy Football 📈 7%

2. 2021 Optic Football 📈 15%

3. 2022 Chronicles Draft Picks Football 📈 2%

4. 2021 One Football 📉 10%

5. 2021 Chronicles Football 📉 10%

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Football 2018-2020: 📉 1.9%

• KEY RISER: DK Metcalf 2019 Select Concourse PSA 10 📈 77%
• KEY DECLINER: Miles Sanders 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 72%

Football 2010-2017: 📉 0.7%

• KEY RISER: TJ Watt 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 63%
• KEY DECLINER: Antonio Brown 2010 Donruss Base PSA 10 📉 60%

Football 2000-2009: 📉 2%

• KEY RISER: Larry Fitzgerald 2004 Topps Base PSA 10 📈 90%
• KEY DECLINER: Matt Ryan 2008 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 46%

Football 1990-1999: 📉 2.9%

• KEY RISER: Randy Moss 1998 Bowman Chrome Base PSA 10 📈 40%
• KEY DECLINER: Peyton Manning 1998 Bowman Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 33%

Football 1980-1989: 📈 1.3%

• KEY RISER: Bruce Smith 1986 Topps Base PSA 9 📈 68%
• KEY DECLINER: Derrick Thomas 1989 Score Base PSA 10 📉 29%

Football 1979 & Older: 📉 1.2%

• KEY RISER: Randy White 1976 Topps Base PSA 9 📈 34%
• KEY DECLINER: OJ Simpson 1970 Topps Base PSA 8 📉 31%

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