NFL Market Movers: Biggest Gainers, Decliners from the Offseason

The start of the NFL season is quickly approaching, and some hobby favorites over the offseason have quickly emerged as must-buys for many collectors and investors. As expected, stars like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert have gotten plenty of attention this offseason, but more speculative plays like Trey Lance have been big recently, too.

The NFL Market Movers series will cover the card market each week, but to get us started we’ll examine the offseason with data over the last three months. Read below for a glance at the NFL market’s big gainers and decliners from the last 90 days using Market Movers data.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum of 10 sales over the last 90 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE GAINERS

1. Josh Jacobs 2019 Select Field Level Silver PSA 10 📈 256%

2. Nick Bosa 2019 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 146%

3. Justin Jefferson 2020 Mosaic NFL Debut PSA 10 📈 129%

4. Jordan Love 2020 Prizm Red White Blue PSA 10 📈 128%

5. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic NFL Debut – Reactive Gold PSA 10 📈 115%

NFL DEBUTS: While the Base variation is the go-to rookie for many collectors, it’s hard not to notice that two of the five cards above are NFL Debut inserts from 2020 Mosaic. This often happens when collectors are priced out of key rookies and decide to move on to more affordable options — that’s not the case here, though.

• Justin Jefferson’s 2020 Mosaic NFL Debut PSA 10 is actually outpacing his 2020 Mosaic Base PSA 10 by about $20, so expect some regression here as the market likely corrects itself in the coming months.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Jacob Eason 2020 Mosaic Pink Camo PSA 10 📉 80%

2. Sam Darnold 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 📉 78%

3. Kyler Murray 2020 Mosaic Silver PSA 10 📉 73%

4. Daniel Jones 2019 Optic Base PSA 10 📉 70%

5. Stefon Diggs 2015 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 66%

MAYFIELD CRUSHES DARNOLD: Sam Darnold has been a hobby favorite for a few years now, regardless of whether or not he’s deserved that status. Anytime Darnold gets some positive news his cards tend to tick up. That market has tanked, however, with Baker Mayfield joining the Panthers as the starting QB — Darnold’s recent trip to the iR hasn’t helped things either, and his PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are now down 2% collectively over the last 90 days across 265 sales.

DOLLAR GROWTH GAINERS

1. Josh Allen 2018 Prizm Autograph PSA 10 📈 $1,797

2. Tom Brady 2000 Bowman Base PSA 10 📈 $1,049

3. Trey Lance 2021 Donruss Downtown PSA 10 📈 $713

4. Josh Allen 2018 Optic Holo PSA 10 📈 $350

5. Josh Allen 2018 Select Premier Level Silver PSA 10 📈 $215

ALLEN DOMINATES: It’s no hobby secret that Bills star QB Josh Allen has been one of the most targeted players leading up to the start of the season, but it’s still impressive how much some of his key rookies have grown from a dollar standpoint.

• Allen’s 2018 Prizm Autograph PSA 10 could be snagged for $3,700 three months ago, but has now ticked up to a $5,500 average. It’s certainly not a fair comparison, but it’s also interesting to see one of Allen’s best cards still so far behind Tom Brady’s 2000 Bowman Base PSA 10 — which is now up to nearly $8,900.

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Mac Jones 2021 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $601

2. Tom Brady 2000 Skybox Impact Base PSA 10 📉 $425

3. Mac Jones 2021 Donruss Downtown PSA 10 📉 $388

4. Joe Burrow 2020 Prizm Lazer PSA 10 📉 $275

5. Justin Herbert 2020 Optic Purple Shock PSA 10 📉 $275

RETURN OF THE MAC: As expected, New England Patriots QB Mac Jones saw some pretty spicy price jumps during his rookie season, especially on his 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10. We’re seeing prices on some of his key cards come back to reality, however, and collectors have adjusted accordingly after seeing a full rookie season.

• Unfortunately for those holding Jones, his 2021 Prizm Silver PSA 10, 2021 Prizm Base PSA 10 and 2021 Mosaic Base PSA 10 are all trending down in a big way over the last three months. Some of the dip on his Prizm Silver could be from an artificially low pop count with grading services largely closed during many 2021 releases.

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Josh Allen 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 293 sales

2. Justin Herbert 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 282 sales

3. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic NFL Debut PSA 10 📈 275 sales

4. Joe Burrow 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 244 sales

5. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic Base PSA 10 📈 240 sales

HERBERT (AND THEN EVERYONE ELSE): It’s not super shocking to see Chargers QB Justin Herbert among the most-sold cards several times leading up to the start of the NFL season. He’s an MVP candidate, is projected to be near the top of the AFC in passing yards and touchdowns, and he’s been a hobby favorite since his stellar rookie season.

• Herbert’s overall presence here isn’t super noteworthy, but it is interesting to see Mosaic and Donruss rather than Prizm or Optic represented near the top. Both brands aren’t exactly far behind, but do come with a much higher price compared to that signature Donruss Rated Rookie.

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 90 DAYS

Football 2018-2020: 📉 7.3%

• KEY RISER: Josh Allen 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 15%
• KEY DECLINER: Kyler Murray 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 35%

Football 2010-2017: 📉 18.5%

• KEY RISER: Juju Smith-Schuster 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 112%
• KEY DECLINER: Tom Brady 2013 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 64%

Football 2000-2009: 📉 4.9%

• KEY RISER: Matthew Stafford 2009 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📈 49%
• KEY DECLINER: LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 Topps Base PSA 10 📉 45%

Football 1990-1999: 📉 4.7%

• KEY RISER: Randy Moss 1998 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📈 47%
• KEY DECLINER: Hines Ward 1998 Topps Base PSA 10 📉 43%

Football 1980-1989: 📈 4.7%

• KEY RISER: Jim Kelly 1987 Topps Base PSA 10 📈 142%
• KEY DECLINER: Herschel Walker 1984 Topps USFL Base PSA 10 📉 36%

Football 1979 & Older: 📉 4.3%

• KEY RISER: Elvin Bethea 1970 Topps Base PSA 8 📈 70%
• KEY DECLINER: Walter Payton 1976 Topps Base PSA 9 📉 17%

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